BTCC Mid-Season Review: Turkington will be Tough to Beat

Fifteen races down, fifteen to go for the 2019 British Touring Car Championship. As always, it’s been full of drama and spectacular moments but it has been surprising to see one driver build a big lead at the halfway point.

That driver, is of course, Colin Turkington: three-time champion of the BTCC and the current defending champion. The Northern Irishman got off to a slow start at Brands Hatch Indy but since Donington he has won four races, including two race meeting doubles.

Can anyone beat the consistency and wit of Turkington?

Driver Standings after Oulton Park

1. Colin Turkington – 194
2. Andrew Jordan – 160
3. Josh Cook – 147
4. Rory Butcher – 146
5. Ashley Sutton – 146
6. Dan Cammish – 130
7. Matt Neal – 124
8. Tom Chilton – 118
9. Tom Ingram – 113
10. Jason Plato – 107

It was an unusual opening meeting to say the least with a surprising and unexpected top six in the championship (Josh Cook leading from Tom Chilton followed by, Stephen Jelley, Rory Butcher, Adam Morgan and Jake Hill). Turkington was down in P13, with just 14 points.

Despite the slippery conditions and the ‘bullring’ nature of the short Brands Hands Indy there were amazingly no safety cars too. Chilton was given a harsh 5-second time penalty in the last race for contact with Matt Neal which gave Butcher a maiden BTCC win. Something that Neal himself has done a countless amount of times in the last 25 years.

To be fair though, in a way it is a good thing that the series is penalising driving standards – hence why Jake Hill got a 20-second time penalty in the most recent race at Oulton Park for nudging Neal (again) into a spin and nearly causing a huge accident.

The driving standards have improved significantly in recent times which is good to see as too much bumping and nudging has been a criticism of the series over the years.

Normal service resumed in Donington as Turkington ignited his season with back to back victories. A big crash for teammate Andrew Jordan as he was hit hard in the side by the Mercedes of Adam Morgan put Jordan out for the weekend.

Tom Ingram took his one and only victory in the reverse grid race as Toyota celebrated their return to the championship with a win in just their 6th race. Unfortunately, Ingram and Toyota have not shown that form since that victory.

The new Toyota Corolla has been unable to extract the performance needed and Ingram has been visibly hustling the car and driving right on the ragged edge to even get into the Top 10.

Conversely, the new BMW 3-Series has been the class of the field. Why are two new cars differing so much? It could simply be down to the different aerodynamics but the Toyota of Ingram is a single car entry so it means that less data, less upgrades and fine tuning of the car can be done, compared to the three BMW cars.

This is one of the reasons why the BMW 3-Series has been able to get up and running so well, especially with two experienced drivers at the wheel in Turkington and Jordan.

Thruxton was meant to be one of the weaker tracks for BMW but Jordan was able to snatch victory away from Sam Tordoff in the Honda. Thruxton has typically been a ‘Honda circuit’ so far BMW to take another double victory was rather ominous and a big warning sign to the rest of the field of what was to come.

Craziness returned at Croft with a record-breaking five red flags in qualifying in very mixed conditions. Jordan took his first pole position in five years despite causing one of the red flags himself.

Disaster struck for Rory Butcher who had been the surprise of the season. The Scotsman suffered a big crash in qualifying but he bounced back to salvage some points in races two and three. Butcher has been brilliant in 2019.

Jordan did the double again and from being 48 points behind the championship leader after Donnington, the 30-year-old was now just 26 points behind.

At Oulton Park, it was Turkington’s turn to do the double as he also took pole position despite carrying the maximum success ballast of 54KG. Last year, the maximum success ballast was 75KG. Oulton Park is normally very punishing with extra weight so for Turkington to take pole position was yet another huge statement to the rest of the field.

In the races, he was relatively comfortable at the head of the field – not having to defend too hard in the first two races. The BMW 3-Series is very good in a straight line (even with the ballast) which suggests they have got the aerodynamic balance between straight line speed and cornering speed absolutely perfect. 

As mentioned earlier, the final race was marred by a scary incident involving Jake Hill and Matt Neal which also took out Jason Plato and Tom Ingram. Stephen Jelley inherited his first victory in the BTCC since Rockingham 2009; nearly 10 years ago.

Neal confronted Hill after the race and rather than doing it behind closed doors, he did it in front of the cameras, in front of Hill’s TradePriceCars.com team including Hill’s friends and family. The scene was played with no sound on ITV so what Neal obviously was not friendly.

I like Matt Neal but the way he reacted to Hill has made me lose some respect for him. Think about the amount of times Neal has intentionally given drivers a bump, nevermind accidently. Yes, the incident could have ended much worse than it did but so could multiple cases of Neal giving drivers a bump at medium to high speed. 

Neal’s archenemy, Jason Plato has had a much better year in his new Power Maxed Racing Vauxhall Astra. The return to front-wheel drive has shown plenty of signs of a fast Plato and a driver who can fight for podiums. He has only had one podium so far this year but I am sure he will find the podium a few more times this season and a couple of wins too.

Plato has been very consistent. If it was not for being taken out of the race by the Neal/Hill incident at the final race at Oulton Park, he has been in the Top 10 for the last 12 races. That is impressive and I have to admit that I was one of those who thought Plato did not have the speed and racecraft he used to have.

Josh Cook has been excellent too and is the best of the non-BMWs. He has been on the podium at every race meeting apart from last time out at Oulton Park and it is great to see the BTC Racing Honda driver ahead of the factory Honda team. 

Without doubt, the surprise of the year has been Rory Butcher in the older Honda Civic. He has only been on the podium twice (one win) but has persistently been scoring solid points, hence why he lies 4th in the drivers’ standings. Can he keep the form up? Or will Butcher drop away which we typically see from drivers who are not expected to contend for the championship.

Somehow, Ash Sutton is 5th in the standings even though his Subaru has not shown the same development compared to previous seasons. Sutton had his best ever start to the championship since he joined the BTCC in 2016 with three podiums from the first five races; things looked very promising.

But, a severe straight line speed deficit is hurting the Subaru. It is not all down to the engine, but the Subaru Levorg’s aerodynamics. This weakness means Sutton is having to make risky overtakes and push right on the limit in the corners to make up for lost time down the straights.

It also means Sutton is having to defend when he should be attacking because the car does not accelerate as fast compared to other cars when the Levorg heads towards peak speed. All of this costs time.

Sutton took five podiums at Croft in 2017 and 2018, a circuit that the Subaru Levorg adores since Croft favours the rear wheel drive cars. But this year, Sutton was unable to fight for the podium so he has yet to get on top of the car and he is now 48 points behind Turkington in the championship.

For me, Sutton is Turkington’s biggest rival to deny him the championship and if the gap does not come down between Sutton and Turkington after the next race meeting in Snetterton, then Sutton will not be in title contention in October.

Lets go back to the question I started with then, is Turkington beatable in terms of the championship? Of course he is, but I think it will take some misfortune for Turkington and an outstanding performance from someone else.

Teammate, Jordan looks like the best bet and if it was not for the no points scored at Donnington, he would likely be just a single points figure behind Turkington. Jordan has had the advantage of not running as much ballast in qualifying but the BMW has been able to handle the extra ballast incredibly well. 

The others have it all to do but I simply do not see them being more consistent than Turkington in the remaining races. They can match him, but to outscore him 47+ points over 15 races will be a monumental task. If someone does beat Turkington on merit, it might be the greatest second half championship campaign that any driver has had in the BTCC.

It is Turkington’s to lose, but literally anything can happen in the BTCC and the BMWs will not have it all their own way with the inevitable chaos ready to pounce on the Turkington parade.