F1 Talk: Predicting the 2020 driver line-up

Last year, the driver line-up was shaken up massively mainly due to Daniel Ricciardo’s departure from Red Bull.

It would be unusual for a similar amount of driver movement to happen for 2020 so I do not think much will change. Eight teams had a different driver pairing from 2018 to 2019, don’t expect that to happen this year.

My prediction below sees seven teams remain the same with a Formula One debutant, a returnee and two drivers walking away from the sport.

You might think, ‘that’s a boring prediction.’ Well sometimes the boring way can be the right one and I fully expect that teams will want to keep things stable in preparation some potentially massive driver changes for 2021.

The order is reflective of the current constructor standings

Mercedes

Lewis Hamilton – Valtteri Bottas

Lewis Hamilton stays, and to team up with him is either going to be Valtteri Bottas or Esteban Ocon. The question is do Mercedes think Ocon can lead the team and is talented enough to take over Hamilton in a few years time?

I don’t think they do and given Ocon’s attitude, it could cause some friction in the team. Personally, I think Mercedes are waiting to grab Max Verstappen for 2021 and if not the Dutchman, then they will promote George Russell who could be Mercedes’ superstar in the coming years.

Bottas has also done a decent job but the main thing is that he is a solid number two driver and his personality will not initiate any confrontation with Hamilton, especially since he can’t afford to fall out with the team anyway or else he will lose his drive.

Mercedes are in a position where they can buy anyone and get anyone to drive for them if needed and Ocon is not even one of the best drivers on the grid.

Ferrari

Sebastian Vettel – Charles Leclerc

Charles Leclerc is in a long-term deal (rumoured to be until 2022) so definitely no change there.

There have been some rumours about Sebastian Vettel retiring but I do not see it happening. He has made mistakes but still has the pace to keep up with Leclerc and if Ferrari finally get it right for 2020, he is still capable of winning a world championship in red.

I would be astonished if Vettel retired. It is Red of Nothing for him and he is not slowing down yet.

Red Bull

Max Verstappen – Alexander Albon

Max Verstappen has a contract for 2020 and I think 2021 is when things could get very interesting for him (especially if Red Bull do not deliver a championship winning car next season). Verstappen is third in the championship and has two wins so if the performance clauses about him needing to be in third at the summer break are true, then he is tied to Red Bull for the time being.

I think Alexander Albon will be a better number two driver than Pierre Gasly in the remaining eight races. Should he do this, he keeps his seat. Things will only get interesting if Albon does not perform (which is possible) but I think he will be good enough to have a full season at Red Bull.

McLaren

Carlos Sainz – Lando Norris

McLaren are the only team to confirm their line-up for 2020 and you can see why there is no change.

Both Carlos Sainz and Lando Norris are young, and both have been performing brilliantly in a car that has lifted the hopes of the team and McLaren’s fans. They get along very well too, on and off the track so there is no need to put an abrupt end to a healthy relationship.

Toro Rosso

Daniil Kvyat – Pierre Gasly

Unless Albon underperforms at Red Bull, Daniil Kvyat will have to stay put despite arguably being the better driver so far in 2019. The Russian can only hope that Albon cracks under the pressure whilst performing well enough himself to give himself a chance at returning to Red Bull.

I don’t think it will happen though and Kvyat will remain at Toro Rosso.

Pierre Gasly first needs to get his head back into the game or else his F1 career could even be over, should he get beaten by Kvyat during the remainder of the season. The return to Toro Rosso might be a blessing in disguise for Gasly and I fully expect him to match Kvyat and have one or two outstanding performances just like he did last year. It won’t be enough though for a return to Red Bull as the damage has already been done unfortunately for Gasly.

Watch out for Juri Vips though who might bypass Formula Two and be put straight into F1. Vips is second in the newly reformed FIA Formula Three championship and needs to stay in the top three to get enough superlicence points to get an F1 seat.

Renault

Daniel Ricciardo – Esteban Ocon

Daniel Ricciardo signed a two-year contract last year so stays put for 2020, even though he surely has to be regretting the change given Honda’s progression with Red Bull.

With Nico Hulkenberg out of contract and with Bottas staying at Mercedes, Esteban Ocon returns to the sport after a one-year hiatus. Ocon proved to be fast at Racing Point in his rookie season, he is French (French driver with a French manufacturer) and he is younger than Hulkenberg.

This is exactly what Renault needs if they do end up challenging for podiums in the future.

Alfa Romeo

Kimi Raikkonen – Antonio Giovinazzi

Kimi Raikkonen is contracted to stay with Alfa Romeo next year and is doing an excellent job so he will almost certainly remain.

Antonio Giovinazzi has not set the world alight but there are no Ferrari academy drivers who can take his seat so I think he will be given one more year to see if he can perform well and at least match Raikkonen.

Mick Schumacher has done nowhere near enough to get into F1 in 2020 and Robert Shwartzman (F3 championship leader) is the only other threat to Giovinazzi’s seat but he will probably have a season in F2 before thinking about F1.

Racing Point

Lance Stroll – Sergio Perez

We all know why Lance Stroll will stay, he might not deserve a place on the grid but when your father is part of the consortium that owns the team, it does help.

Sergio Perez deserves a shot with a top team but I don’t think he will ever get it. With not much movement and with Perez about to reach his 30s, it looks like (just like Hulkenberg) that he has missed the boat and will have to stay with Racing Point.

No change at the Pink Panthers.

Haas

Kevin Magnussen – Nico Hulkenberg

Haas should have changed their line-up last year but did not, I cannot see them keeping Kevin Magnussen and Romain Grosjean as a partnership, one of them has to go.

It’s a very tough choice because there is hardly anything between Magnussen and Grosjean. For me though, Grosjean’s time is up which is a shame because he is underrated and many see him as ‘accident prone’ or a driver who ‘whines’ all the time.

Magnussen is slightly better and is seven years younger (at only 26-years of age surprisingly) so would be the better option.

Even though Hulkenberg and Magnussen don’t like each other (remember the ‘suck my balls’ incident at Hungary in 2017), Haas would be silly to not get Hulkenberg because he is very consistent and an upgrade over Magnussen and Grosjean.

I don’t see who else Haas can realistically get and Hulkenberg is probably the best driver they can get.

Williams

George Russell – Nicholas Latifi

George Russell has done a superb job at Williams and will be waiting for a Mercedes seat in 2021. Should he not get it, he will likely move teams but he can still hang on with Williams for another year.

Russell has destroyed Robert Kubica who just like Gasly lacks pace and is getting obliterated by a rookie. I cannot see how Williams can keep Kubica who is not performing well enough to keep a seat on the grid. The fairytale story could come to a close very soon.

Nicholas Latifi is a strong candidate to replace Kubica. Latifi will bring lots of money with him (which Williams still desperately need) and is having his best F2/GP2 season to date although he has done four full seasons in F2/GP2 so he should be doing well with all of his experience in the category.

On outright pace, Latifi shouldn’t get a seat because Nyck De Vries has been outstanding but De Vries will bring nowhere near the same amount of money that Latifi can bring to the table plus Latifi is currently Williams’ test and reserve driver so will know the team very well.

Summary

• Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull, McLaren, Toro Rosso, Alfa Romeo and Racing Point line-ups to stay the same
• Ocon to replace Hulkenberg at Renault
• Hulkenberg to replace Grosjean at Haas
• Latifi to replace Kubica at Williams
• Grosjean and Kubica out of F1

Lots could change in the next 2-3 years but for 2020, expect minor changes and anything else will be a massive shock.