F1 Preview: What to expect from an already strange season?

Today marks 200 days since the last Formula 1 Grand Prix. 2020 has been a crazy year around the world but for F1 fans it must feel like years since we saw the fastest racing cars in the world race each other, driven by some of the finest drivers.

Live sport has been returning in various countries in recent weeks and in a fortnight’s time Formula 1 will take centre stage once again as the Austrian Grand Prix gets the season underway.

It will be the latest start to a Formula 1 World Championship ever and unusually we do not even know how many races there will be.

Winter testing feels like it was a long time ago so what can we expect from the upcoming season?

Will we get a championship fight?

A shortened season means that there is less time to catch up if you have a DNF, so mistakes will be punished more than ever. Mercedes looked strong in winter testing but Red Bull showed that they will be right on their tails.

Over the last few years, we have slowly but surely seen more and more daring duels between Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen. Its box office stuff.

For me, this season will finally see two of the most talented F1 drivers ever go head to head. Expect more intensity, more tension and a stronger rivalry that F1 has dearly missed in recent years.

Hamilton vs. Verstappen for the title?

Hamilton has to be the favourite and his experience of multiple championship fights might be the difference between him and Verstappen if the title battle is close going into the final rounds.

Red Bull are generally a match for Mercedes in the development race but with eight races in ten weeks, getting out of the blocks quickly will be crucial.

The latest news from the Red Bull camp will please many. They will bring significant updates to the Red Bull Ring and Honda has continued to develop their power unit. Verstappen is confident and two races in Austria should help Red Bull because they were the car to beat in Austria last year.

Hungary 2019 saw Verstappen take his maiden pole position and that is the third grand prix on the schedule. If Verstappen can collect a lot of points in the first three races, Red Bull will feel they can take the challenge to Mercedes.

Momentum plays a massive part in any sport and it is problem something that is undermined. If Red Bull can be setting the pace in the opening races, its game on. If Mercedes are the team to beat then it will be game over.

For me, a record-equalling seventh word championship for Hamilton is the most likely scenario. But I think he will have to fight for it against Verstappen and Red Bull.

Will the new calendar favour Ferrari?

Ferrari struggled in pre-season testing but I do not think they are as bad as the laptimes and data suggest. But, the all-round ability of the SF-1000 will likely let them down.

Without doubt Ferrari have lost the straight line speed advantage they had over the rest of the field and it will be fascinating to see if this advantage has been wiped away completely or if they have managed to make gains in other areas within the power unit.

However, the new schedule could play massively into Ferrari’s hands. Last year, they were very strong in Austria, Belgium, Italy, Germany, Russia and Bahrain. And all of those tracks could be on the calendar.

The season starts with a double-header in Austria and there could be yet more double-headers at Sochi, Hockenheim and Bahrain.

Ferrari will almost certainly have a stronger chance of vying for wins now because of the new schedule.

A small lifeline for the Tifosi.

Sebastian Vettel vs. Charles Leclerc?

If 2019 is anything to do by, it will be on again between Vettel and Leclerc. Vettel has nothing to lose now he is leaving Ferrari at the end of the year. Do not expect him to listen to team orders or give Leclerc an easy time.

Leclerc was very impressive last year. To take the most pole positions as well as back to back victories at Spa and Monza was sublime and he is only going to get better.

But, you just cannot count out Vettel. He still has the speed and was slightly better over a race distance than Leclerc in 2019.

I feel both drivers will have a frustrating year as they lack the consistency compared to Red Bull and Mercedes but do not rule them out to take a few wins.

The shortened season means if Vettel and Leclerc can stay out of trouble (and that is a big if) then they can take advantage of any mishaps from Mercedes and Red Bull.

Will Racing Point be the surprise of the season?

Absolutely. Teams and fans might not be happy about the car being remarkably similar to last year’s title winning Mercedes but do not forget Red Bull and Toro Rosso have been doing it for years and Ferrari and Haas too.

Even with a good car, the team will have to execute and Racing Point have been so good at punching above their weight on numerous occasions.

Sergio Perez could be the star of the season. It would be fantastic for the sport if the Mexican can pick up a few surprise podiums as he has had over the last eight years.

Lance Stroll will also have a chance to shine and desperately needs to improve his qualifying performances which remains to be the big weakness for the former European F3 champion.

Watch out for the Pink Panthers.

Will the midfield be closer to the top teams?

Normally, after years of having the same engine formula and when the aerodynamic rules do not change from year to year, the field converges so expect the same this season.

It means a higher chance of unexpected podiums, less room for error for the bigger teams and more opportunities for the midfield. 

McLaren took a surprise podium in Brazil last year and had a great 2019. They looked quietly strong in pre-season testing and the team will be buoyed with confidence going into Austria.

Expect the top teams to still fill the podium positions but for any mistakes to be punished more than last year.

Ocon returns, can he trouble Ricciardo?

Esteban Ocon is back on the grid after a year as Mercedes reserve driver. He will without doubt have a better relationship with his new teammate Daniel Ricciardo after a troublesome partnership with Sergio Perez at Force India.

It’s a fantastic line-up for Renault and I think Ocon can challenge Ricciardo in qualifying but will be just behind in the races.

For Ricciardo, he will have one eye on 2021 and McLaren so his relationship with Renault could become strained and he may have to be an unhappy bunny for the rest of the year.

Renault were disappointing last year, and I believe it was a blip. I expect the French manufacturer to be much more competitive and a great scrap to develop between McLaren, Renault and Racing Point.

A quiet year for the two “Alfa” (Alpha) teams?

Alpha Tauri and Alfa Romeo will be just behind the three mentioned midfield teams in my opinion. Both will truck along nicely and pick up the backend of the points but the outstanding podiums that Daniil Kvyat and Pierre Gasly scored last year are unlikely to happen again.

I would love for both teams to prove me wrong but I do not think they will progress as much as they did from 2018 to 2019 and they will struggle in 2020.

Have Haas overcome their problems?

Similarly to Alfa Romeo, Haas did not shown anything special or promising in pre-season testing so it could be another long and arduous year for the team.

There is the chance that Haas could pull the plug on F1 if Gene Haas does not see any reason or economic viability to remain in F1 post-2021 especially with the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

Qualifying pace should be good but the team had poor long run pace in Barcelona which does not bode well and suggests they have not got on top of their tyre window problems from last year which is disastrous.

Will Williams still be at the back?

Almost certainly. But, things looked much better than last year but nowhere near good enough to challenge for points. With the team potentially going up for sale, off-track talk might be more important for the team so that they can secure their future in the sport.

Williams could match Haas this season and should they continue to improve, then 2020 will be a much more positive year.

Encouragement can be taken from pre-season testing going into Austria as the car looked better in every area compared to the Spanish Grand Prix weekend last year.

How much will the coronavirus have an affect on F1?

Unusually we do not know what the rest of the calendar looks like and it might be the case that we still don’t know when the opening weekend gets underway. 

How many engines, gearboxes will the teams be allowed if we do not know how many grand prix there will be? 

Surely we will get a full schedule within the next fortnight or else how do the teams know how much they can push their engines and gearboxes in the early races.

A second wave could put the whole season into disarray too but who knows what will happen with COVID-19.

Hopefully nobody in the paddock tests positive for the virus and from a sporting perspective, hopefully a team will not be affected if multiple team members are forced to self isolate if they test positive.

An exciting season in prospect?

We have to be realistic here. F1 has not had a championship that has gone down to the wire between two drivers from two different teams for eight years now.

I can only see Verstappen and Red Bull taking the fight to Hamilton. I would love to be wrong about Ferrari but they still lack the operations system and management that Mercedes has built in the last ten years.

The midfield should be closer and I think there will be surprise podiums which is great for the sport.

Hopefully the coronavirus does not impact the rest of the season and the on track action can deliver and put a smile on people’s faces after such a long time without F1.

You just never know with F1 but when its good, it can be the best sport in the world.