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F1 Preview: Who will deliver the goods in Abu Dhabi?

Nigel Chiu
November 27, 2019

The lights will go out in Abu Dhabi to send 20 Formula One cars into the unknown for over 300KM for the last time in 2019.

It was battles galore with the gloves off last time out in Brazil, Abu Dhabi has a lot to live up to if 2019 is to end on an exciting note.

Other than playing for the minor positions in the drivers’ championship in and around the top 10, the only potential key fight is whether Toro Rosso can do something special to overhaul Renault for 5th place on the constructors’ championship.

Qualifying is very important as the Yas Marina Circuit is a difficult circuit to overtake at compared to Brazil and USA. Although there are two long straights, connected by a chicane, the final sector is a nightmare to follow a car closely through.

Ferrari should be strong and will be looking to have enough pace and get the strategy right to hold off their rivals.

Mercedes look stronger this year compared to this time last year and with everywhere putting most of the focus into 2020, I believe Mercedes are favourites this weekend.

Credit: Mercedes-Benz

Even if Ferrari lock out the front row, the Silver Arrows should have the pace and the tyre wear to overhaul Ferrari but it will be exciting to see whether they can execute a strategy to do this.

Mercedes have won every Abu Dhabi Grand Prix since the turbo-hybrid era whilst Ferrari have never won in Abu Dhabi at all.

However, Mercedes’ lack of straight line speed in Sao Paulo might hurt them yet again and making a genuine overtake on a Ferrari will require a big tyre advantage.

Also, Valtteri Bottas will likely have to take a grid penalty because his power unit in Brazil got ruined and is potentially unfixable so Hamilton will have to fight the Ferrari and Red Bull drivers alone.

Lewis Hamilton and Bottas will have to be right on the gearbox of a Ferrari on the exit of turn seven (the hairpin before the long back straight) to have a good chance of making an overtake stick.

Red Bull should be in the mix as well so a three-way fight to see off the season should be on.

I have been very impressed with Red Bull’s qualifying pace in the second half of the year; they are in a much better place in terms of qualifying trim with the Honda engine compared to the Renault power unit last year.

Credit: Mercedes-Benz

The Honda power unit will not be as effective in Abu Dhabi compared to Brazil, due to the Yas Marina Circuit being at sea level but Red Bull should be a match for Mercedes in the race so if Max Verstappen or Alexander Albon can sneak onto the second row, they will be contending for the victory.

In Brazil. the Red Bull was mega in the middle sector. Verstappen was able to place the Red Bull wherever he wanted and the rotation and pointiness RB15 through turns eight, nine and ten was magic.

This bodes well for the final sector in Abu Dhabi, although the corners are slightly more open compared to Brazil.

Tyre wear will be a factor since Pirelli are bringing the three softest compounds to Abu Dhabi. One of the frontrunners will almost certainly try a two-stop race and go aggressive with strategy.

One of the best things about F1 in 2019 has been the midfield scrap. Alfa Romeo and Toro Rosso had astonishing results in Brazil, plus McLaren’s Carlos Sainz got onto the podium.

If a driver outside of the top three teams gets onto the podium this weekend, it would be unbelievable to say the least.

Credit: Honda Racing

McLaren should be strong yet again and Toro Rosso will need something special from Pierre Gasly once again plus the help of Daniil Kvyat who has been quite poor recently, if they are to overhaul Renault.

Alfa Romeo have faded away in the second half of the season but the 4th and 5th place finish for Kimi Raikkonen and Antonio Giovinazzi will be a big confidence booster for the Italian team.

Admittedly, the Yas Marina Circuit is not one of my favourite circuits and I would rather F1 did not go there. I am not a fan of the layout or the event itself.

However, there often is some good battles during the race but you will never get an absolute classic due to the nature of the track. At least you can overtake, but I find the whole 3.45 miles circuit quite bland with very little character.

Nevertheless, the field should be tight at the front and in the midfield so there’s a lot to look forward too and if you compare the season now to the beginning of the year, there is no team domination and we have no idea who will be the team to beat.

 

Nigel Chiu

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