MotoGP: Bagnaia makes the ultimate impression

When MotoGP race in Aragon, there is a feeling of inevitability about Marc Marquez. The MotorLand circuit plays host to the eight-times World Champion’s home Grand Prix, and Marquez had won there five times in the premier class between 2013 and 2019. Only Jorge Lorenzo had triumphed in the Marquez era in Aragon, when Marquez crashed in both the 2014 and 2015 races. 

It was no surprise, then, that Marquez appeared to be the strongest of the MotoGP riders heading into last Sunday’s race in MotorLand, but perhaps it was not entirely anticipated that he would not be an absolute favourite. A few riders, but in particular Francesco Bagnaia – who set pole position with a new lap record in qualifying on Saturday – and Joan Mir – who qualified on the third row – seemed to have comparable pace to the #93. Furthermore, it would have been unjust to rule out Jorge Martin, who started alongside Marquez on row two in fifth place and has tended to race better than he’s practiced since his win in Austria a few rounds ago. 

When he’s won in Aragon, Marquez has mostly made a mockery of the field, save for 2017, when he fought the Ducati Jorge Lorenzo and his Honda teammate, Dani Pedrosa, and 2018 when he was embroiled in quite an intense battle with Ducati’s Andrea Dovizioso and Suzuki’s Andrea Iannone. Even in 2017, though, Marquez was able to escape in the second half of the race, and in 2018 he stretched the field out in the final three laps. 

None of those with whom Marquez fought in that past at Aragon were present for the 2021 edition. Instead, the competition was new, and in the race it became clear that the challenge was increased. 

Of course, Marquez is not at full capacity; his struggles continue in recovery from the humerus fracture in Jerez last year, as well as the right shoulder that was operated on in the previous winter. This was highlighted in free practice on Saturday, when Marquez crashed in turn 14. It was a crash that we’d seen him have many times before – or rather we would have if he was less adept at recovering front slides. Marquez’ talent for such saves has not changed, but his physical capability is limited by his weakened right arm and shoulder, and when the front fold he simply cannot use them to hold himself up. 

Francesco Bagnaia, on the other hand, has never had a better moment in his career. In Silverstone, were it not for a suspected problem tyre on Sunday, he would have been in the podium battle, and in both Austria races he had the pace to fight at the front. The Italian has become a new rider since the summer break, meaning that on track we find the calm, intelligent and consistent rider that won the 2018 Moto2 World Championship, only now with 300 horsepower in his right hand. 

As good as his previous weekends were, Bagnaia’s consistent speed reached a new level in MotorLand, where in his previous three MotoGP races he had failed to score a point. In 2021 his pace was matched only by Marquez and Mir in practice, although others were close. But with Mir on row three and without Suzuki’s holeshot device to use off the start or in the race, Bagnaia seemed to be the only rider who could stop Marquez’ winning record in Aragon. 

Indeed, Bagnaia made the perfect start, making the first corner first and, despite nearly being T-boned by teammate Jack Miller who got in slightly hot to the miserably tight first corner, he emerged with the lead. 

Miller had started second but dropped to third place when Marquez undercut him on the exit of the first corner. Marquez himself had made a fantastic start, and was right where he needed to be to challenge Bagnaia.

In the early stages of the race, Bagnaia and Marquez had some company in the shape of Miller, Mir and Aleix Espargaro, fresh from his Silverstone podium. But it was not long before the leading pair began to stretch away. Quite simply, no one else could match their pace. 

It could be argued that Joan Mir could have gone with them had he started further up the grid, but in 2021 it seems that condition applies to every race. While the likes of Bagnaia, Zarco and Quartararo are able to qualify consistently on the front two rows, Mir – as well as Suzuki teammate Alex Rins – have continued their one-lap struggles that were present in 2020.

Bagnaia led Marquez unchallenged for 20 of the 23 laps in which time they were able to amass a lead of over four seconds back to Espargaro, and then Mir. The reigning champion was unable to make an impression on the leaders, and that made it hard to judge Marquez. If Mir had begun to close, Marquez would have tried to pass early and get away before the #36 arrived to pick up the spoils of the leading duel. But with Mir’s distance there was no rush for Marquez to try to pass. 

After following Bagnaia for 20 laps it is hard to imagine that Marquez was lacking in information on his rival when it came to his decision on where to pass the Italian. But there were problems for the Spaniard. 

Firstly, he could not pass in the straight, because the Ducati was too strong on corner exit from turn 15. Secondly, he couldn’t pass into turn one, because the Ducati was better at keeping the front wheel on the floor over the crest on the exit of the final corner, and in any case Bagnaia was incredibly late on the brakes into the first turn. 

When turns one and 16 are out of the equation, the best place to pass in MotorLand is on the change of direction between turns three and four. There, you can take away the line from your rival, and if you take away the line successfully they will be unable to retaliate on the brakes for turn five. However, the move at turn four requires the rider behind to carry more speed through turn three to set it up. This is where the third problem for Marquez arose, and it was that he had less grip on the right side of the tyre than Bagnaia. 

On the left side, by the end of the race Marquez was much more comfortable than the #63, but on the right Bagnaia had been more efficient. Bagnaia’s superior grip on the right side of the tyre compared to Marquez meant he was able to cover the move that Marquez seemed desperate to make, and forced the Spaniard into finding another way past the Italian. 

It was slightly surprising that Marquez chose to attack first with three laps to go. Perhaps he thought he could escape Bagnaia and be out of range by the time they reached the straight. Certainly, as the race approached lap 20, Bagnaia’s pace dropped to the high-1:48s, so perhaps Marquez sensed an opportunity to be able to pull away in the final laps as he had done in 2018. But Bagnaia resisted when Marquez made his first move at turn five on lap 21. 

The move was a classic of both Aragon and Marquez, as he diagonal-ed the braking zone to get to the inside of Bagnaia. But he could not stop, and the Italian simply cut back underneath him on the exit. 

Attack number two came at turn 15 later on lap 21, Marquez carrying more speed through turn 14 to get to the inside of Bagnaia at 15. But Bagnaia read it once more and, again, cut under Marquez on the exit to beat him down the straight. Both moves, at turn five and 15, were repeated by Marquez on lap 22, with similar results. 

A change of tactic was required on the final lap, so Marquez attacked at turn one, where Bagnaia had been strong throughout the whole race. Marquez could not be later on the brakes than Bagnaia, so he employed the same strategy as in turn five: to let the brake off, diagonal the last part of the braking zone and get to the inside of Bagnaia. Marquez, though, ran wide once again, marginally onto the green on the outside, and Bagnaia once more undercut him on the exit. 

Another repeat of the move at turn five led to the same result as on laps 21 and 22, so Marquez looked for a place to make a final assault. His answer was turn 12, which comes after three left-handers, including the long, hanging rear tyre torturer of turn 10. After turn 10 is turn 11, which seems nothing more than an inconsequential kink until you realise it necessitates the braking for turn 12 to be done entirely on the side of the tyre. This is Marquez’ strong point, and throughout the race the difference between himself and Bagnaia in the final part of the braking was visibly substantial in that corner, and so a move there was unsurprising.

But Bagnaia, again, was incredibly late on the brakes. Marquez matched him, but to have a chance at making the move he had no choice but to, as in turn one, let the brake off. This ran him wide, out of the circuit and, unbeknownst to Bagnaia, out of contention. 

The final four corners from Bagnaia were as the previous 387 that had been completed to that point, and he finally became a MotoGP winner. 

Ultimately, the way in which a rider wins their first MotoGP race is pointless, what matters is that they achieve it at all. But, surely, there are few better ways to win a MotoGP race than in a late-race battle, following a period of constant pressure from the start, with Marc Marquez. To win the first race in such a fashion is impressive, as is the fact that Bagnaia was the only rider to have the ability to match Marquez’ pace at one of the #93’s best circuits. Aragon was the announcement of Francesco Bagnaia, and it couldn’t have been made in a stronger, more assertive way.