MotoGP: German GP Preview: Will we be left in awe again?

So then, Sachsenring. What have you got for us this weekend? Assen has set the benchmark as far as close racing is concerned, trumping anything that has happened before. But the Sachsenring can be good too, providing a certain Marc Marquez doesn’t walk off at the front like he has done since 2010 in every class he has been in. But I get the feeling Marc isn’t going to run away with the German GP, not if it is dry. Mixed weather? He will dominate – unless he makes a mistake. But in dry conditions, we could see any one of six or more riders take German honours. Look how close young Jonas Folger came last year. The track itself consists mainly of left handers and a scary right turn which plummets down hill. It’s fierce, fast and a MotoGP classic – even if it is a bit like a big karting circuit.

It sounds inevitable that we will see a Marc Marquez win, doesn’t it? He has won every race at the Sachsenring since stepping up to the class in 2013 and had won three other times before then. Honda riders have had wins at the Sachsenring since 2010, with Dani Pedrosa and Casey Stoner being other notable victors. And if his Sachsenring form wasn’t enough, Marquez has been Mr Consistent so far, with six podiums from eight races and never once being the third man home when on the rostrum. Marquez’s devastating pace has earned him the large lead in the championship that he is sporting so well. However, if one can build it up in eight races, one can certainly lose it in the next eight too. Sachsenring is make or break for the opposition; the ball is in Marquez’s court.

Valentino Rossi – the luckiest man in the entire Dutch TT, after avoiding a major accident with Jorge Lorenzo in the early stages. Valentino Rossi, also a race leader at Assen, looking competitive again. It is hard to know whether Yamaha have found something or whether, like normal, they just went well at Assen. Either way, despite finishing 5th, Rossi will come to the Sachsenring with renewed confidence in his M1. He was the last Yamaha rider to win in Germany, back in 2009, whilst winning on another four occasions at the track. Rossi’s championship isn’t done but Germany is going to be important. He hasn’t reached the 100 point mark yet, whereas Marquez is on 140 – and Rossi is his nearest challenger.

It took him long enough, but Maverick Vinales finally managed a podium in Europe. His last one was at Silverstone last year, whilst his last podium was back in COTA. He continued Yamaha’s sensational run of podiums that stretched back to the Australian GP last season – not bad for a struggling manufacturer. Vinales has never won in Germany in any class and has only had one top ten finish in the premier class at the Sachsenring – 4th last season. He is six points behind teammate Rossi and 47 points from series leader Marquez. Yamaha need wins and Vinales does too. Could he be the rider who stops Marquez’s domination at the Sachsenring.

How Johann Zarco is still 4th in the championship standings, I haven’t a clue. The Frenchman has been way off the pace since the French GP when he crashed out and hasn’t looked anything like the podium threat he was at the start of the season. However, at Assen, he was running at the front for a while – even if he didn’t stay there to the end. It may also be worth pointing out that Zarco – with the exception of his crash at Le Mans – has finished every race since Aragon last season in the top ten; not bad at all for an Independent team rider. Three podiums at the Sachsenring – including a thrilling win against Jonas Folger in the wet Moto2 race in 2016 – constitute Zarco’s form, whilst a 9th in dodgy conditions last year shows he has the top ten pace again. Can he regain the start-of-season success he enjoyed and wowed us with?

Andrea Dovizioso’s championship challenge seems to be suffering from subsidence at the moment. The Ducati rider has only had one podium in the last five races, whereas at this point last year, he was coming into the German round with the championship lead right in his view. Dovizioso’s record at the Sachsenring doesn’t set the world alight either, with just two podiums in the premier class – the most recent being 3rd in 2016. Dovizioso could certainly be a threat for the podium but he hasn’t won at the Sachsenring in any class – he hadn’t been on the podium at the venue until his premier class days. Either way, it is looking like an uphill battle for Dovi, who looks a shadow of his 2017-self.

Whilst English football fans commiserate, British motorcycle racing fans will hope to be celebrating on Sunday. Cal Crutchlow was right in the mix at Assen and the Englishman goes to the Sachsenring with confidence and knowing that he can mount a podium challenge. With the exception of 2011, Cal has had top ten results at all of his German Grand Prix, with podiums coming in 2013 and 2016 – both times he was 2nd. A 10th last season will inspire Crutchlow to go and get a better result this year and if he was to get another top ten, it’d be the first time he’s managed five consecutive top tens in two seasons. Crutchlow could be a good outside bet for a win.

Jorge Lorenzo’s impressive form continues, having run at the front for the majority of the Dutch TT. The Spaniard eventually finished 7th but it was his fourth consecutive top ten. He hasn’t had five on the bounce since the start of last season, from round three to round seven. Lorenzo’s last German podium was in 2014 with 3rd, whilst his best premier class results came in 2009, 2010 and 2011, with 2nd. Could he be a threat?

I’m going to be honest. Dani Pedrosa’s season has turned into a bit of a joke. 15th at Assen – he is a Factory Honda rider, even if he won’t be at the end of the season. Languishing in 12th in the championship, he isn’t exactly the “perfect number two” that so many people believe he is to Marquez. Having said all that, he has been on the podium in three of the last four German GPs. He blows so hot and cold, Pedrosa will probably win the race now.

The Suzuki pairing of Alex Rins and Andrea Iannone come into the German GP as enigmas. Alex Rins has only finished 50% of races this season, but 50% of the ones he has finished has seen him on the podium. He won the 2013 Moto3 race at the Sachsenring but he hasn’t scored points at the track since he was 3rd in 2015. Andrea Iannone retired from the German GP last year but was 5th for the three previous years. Suzuki’s last win at the Sachsenring came in 1999 with Kenny Roberts Jr, albeit on a different circuit layout.

KTM go to Germany absolutely craving a top ten. Pol Espargaro was 12th last time out and has been in the points in all but one race this season – at Losail. Bradley Smith on the other hand has only scored points in three races and the last time he scored points was in Italy, at Mugello. Neither rider has won in Germany but both have numerous top tens in the MotoGP class at the Sachsenring – whilst both also scored points last year for KTM at the track. Can a top ten finally happen?

Aprilia, oh Aprilia. Last time out, the Italian manufacturer got both bikes home and in the points – the first time since Motegi last season that it has happened. Now, can they do it for a second consecutive race. Aleix Espargaro was 7th for Aprilia in 2017 at the Sachsenring, whilst Scott Redding was 4th at the track in 2016. Could we possibly see a double top ten, something that hasn’t happened since 2016 at Motegi.

The Pramac Ducati team head to Germany a little bit subdued – I would imagine. Jack Miller had a far from stunning race meeting at Assen, when he could only manage a 10th, whilst Danilo Petrucci suffered his first 0-point score since Phillip Island last season. Germany should be better, as Danilo Petrucci led the race for the team in 2016 for short while, whilst Jack Miller has a Moto3 win to his name in 2014 and has finished every race in the points since moving to MotoGP.

The Angel Nieto Racing team were once again represented in the top ten, with Alvaro Bautista continuing his amazing work in 2018. Turning a bike from perennial back-of-the-field runner to top ten finisher is an achievement. The last time Bautista had four consecutive top tens was in 2016 for Aprilia. Karel Abraham will be looking for points, although the last time he got any in Germany was in 2014, when he finished 13th.

Avintia Ducati haven’t scored points since Mugello but Tito Rabat was desperately unlucky to miss out on them in The Netherlands. The Spanish rider finished a race outside the points for the first time since Sepang last year and will want to be back in them at the Sachsenring – a circuit at which he has never had a podium at. Xavier Simeon could be capable of brilliant things this weekend, as he was a winner at the venue back in 2015 in Moto2. Could we see Belgium get their first premier class points since 2000?

The Marc VDS Honda team will hope that Franco Morbidelli can be fit enough for the German GP, considering his high-speed crash in practice at Assen. Morbidelli won the Moto2 race at the Sachsenring last year, but failed to finish in the two years before that. Tom Luthi hasn’t finished a race in the points yet this season and his last podium at the Sachsenring was in 2005! Maybe not the best circuit for the Swiss…

The last two riders are Takaaki Nakagami and Hafizh Syahrin. Nakagami was 19th last time at Assen, whilst Syahrin was 18th so both will look to regain points in Germany. Syahrin was a sensational 7th place in 2016 and 11th last season. Nakagami was 10th last season and 11th the year before, so again, like Luthi, maybe it just isn’t the best circuit to come to for the Japanese rookie.