MotoGP: Italian GP Preview: The annual carnival

MotoGP visits one of its best circuits of the year as everyone gets a bit yellow, for the Italian Grand Prix – the spiritual home of nine-time champion, Valentino Rossi. The incredibly fast, sweeping, magical and undulating signature which is Mugello is steeped in history and has seen some of the most memorable battles take place there. It’s busy, it’s chaotic and it’s noisy: the green grass banks which create the natural amphitheatre atmosphere will create a carnival and festival-like feel on Sunday for one man. Valentino Rossi.

However, whilst Valentino may be the absolute God of Italian motorsport, he is not the championship leader. That honour falls to nemesis Marc Marquez, who has won the last three races in frighteningly convincing style. The Repsol Honda rider comes to a circuit which has not been his favourite in the past, with a lousy 6th in 2017 and having being beaten to the line in 2016 by Jorge Lorenzo. 2015 saw a crash whilst his last win was in 2014. Marc hasn’t won four races on the bounce since his streak of ten back in 2014. Could Marquez be a winner at Mugello and receive the undoubted ‘pantomime villain’ reception?

Somehow, despite not being on the podium since COTA – which I may add is his only podium of the year thus far – Maverick Vinales is 2nd in the series standings, a whopping 36 points adrift of the magnificent Marc Marquez. Vinales comes to Mugello as a possible winner, having finished 2nd at the track for Yamaha last year. Vinales won at the track in 2012 on an FTR Honda in Moto3 and will look to repeat the achievement in 2018. Yamaha have won twice in the last three years at Mugello, so, problems aside, they may find themselves in contention once more. Should Vinales not finish on the podium, it will be his 11th race in the last 13 where he’s been away from a podium.

With French hearts still broken and undoubtedly aching after the demise at Le Mans, Johann Zarco is the kind of rider who could cause a huge upset at Mugello. The French sensation crashed for only the second time last at home, ending a stunning 21 race run of point scoring rides. Now, he heads to neighbouring Italy to see if he can end France’s drought of no premier class GP winner since Laconi in ‘99. Should he do that, he will be the first French rider to win a premier class race in Italy in the entire history of Motorcycle Grand Prix. Can he deliver Yamaha’s first win of the season?

Valentino Rossi’s superb ride from 9th to 3rd at Le Mans elevated him to fourth in the championship, despite the countless issues he and Yamaha are undergoing right now. The 39-year-old veteran Italian has an incredible record at Mugello, streaking to victory in the premier class in every year from 2002-2008. However, the 2008 triumph is his last to date, despite retiring with a blown motor in 2016 when leading. Valentino over the last two years has not qualified off the front row and that has given him the chance to be able to fight for victory. Fully fit in 2018, Rossi may be able to override the issues that Yamaha have to deliver what would be an immensely popular win. After all, it is his spiritual home.

Danilo Petrucci is one of just three riders to have scored points in all five races so far and this has consequently seen him take over as top Ducati rider in the championship. Not only has the Italian been consistent but since the European leg got underway, he is yet to finish outside the top five. And the statistics get better and better for home hero Petrucci, as he was third in the Italian GP last year, finishing behind only Dovizioso and Vinales. Still chasing his first race win in MotoGP, nobody deserves one more than Danilo Petrucci. Having come to MotoGP the hard way from the FIM European Superstock 1000, riding the ill-fated Ioda Racing machine before switching to Pramac Ducati in 2015, Petrucci has done everything he can to get himself in this position. Dare I say it, but a Petrucci win would be almost as popular as a Valentino Rossi victory.

Just in case one Pramac Ducati isn’t enough for you, Jack Miller makes it two inside the top six for the Independent team. The flamboyant and charismatic Australian has shown true Aussie grit and determination since joining forces with the Italian squad this season, finishing every single race inside the top ten and claiming a pole position at the controversial Argentine Grand Prix. Miller is yet to score a podium in 2018 but I think one may be just around the corner at Mugello. Despite finishing just 15th last season and not finishing an Italian GP in the top 10 since 2013 on the FTR Honda in Moto3, Miller is a changed rider and has the potential to move into the Factory Ducati team next year, unequivocally a motivator. A podium, or even a win at Mugello would give Ducati a big question about 2019 – as well as a headache.

So with the top six covered in great detail, attention turns to the rest of the chasing pack. Andrea Iannone and Suzuki are in 7th place and may have been higher had ‘The Maniac’ not chucked his Suzuki into the French sandpit on the opening lap at Le Mans. It was Andrea’s first retirement since Misano last year and the ex Ducati rider has good history at Mugello, as – with the exception of 2013 – he has finished inside the top ten on all premier class occasions, including two podiums in 2015 and 2016. Teammate Alex Rins is 12th in the championship and if he stops crashing out of good positions, he will improve. He hasn’t had back-to-back finishes since Motegi and Phillip Island last year, whilst he hasn’t raced at Mugello on a MotoGP bike either.

Dani Pedrosa is 10th in the championship and yet to achieve a top four placing in 2018. The diminutive Spaniard won at Mugello in 2010 but hasn’t had a podium to celebrate at the track since 2013, when he was 2nd. Pedrosa is 66 points down on Marquez in the championship and needs a good result to elevate him up the order.

The Factory Ducati team have had almost no luck in the last two races. Both riders taking each other out at Jerez and Dovizioso crashing out of the lead at Le Mans means that they are 9th with Dovi and 14th with Jorge – who took his first top 10 of the year at Le Mans. Both riders have won at the circuit before, with Lorenzo taking glory in 2015 and 2016 most recently whilst Dovizioso kick-started his title charge from Mugello last season with a win. Mugello is important for Lorenzo, as his ride for 2019 is slipping from his grasp. A win for Lorenzo at a track he and the Ducati go well at could throw the cat amongst the pigeons as far as the rider market is concerned.

KTM come to Mugello in good spirits, with both riders scoring points in the last two races. Pol Espargaro has been knocking on the door of top tens and will look to break into them at Mugello, whereas Bradley Smith has been making incremental steps with the bike, slowly but surely catching his teammate. Neither KTM was able to score points last season at Mugello, so the first objective will be to get inside the crucial top 15.

Aprilia are still languishing down the order as far as championship standings are concerned, with Aleix Espargaro being the highest placed rider in 16th. He failed to finish the race last year at Mugello but took his best result in 2018 last time out at Le Mans, with ninth. He has not had back-to-back top 10s since Motegi and Phillip Island last year. Scott Redding is still struggling with the Aprilia, with a retirement at Le Mans. He finished 12th last year at Mugello for Pramac Ducati and was a winner at the circuit in 2013 in Moto2.

With factory teams done, attention now turns to the Independent outfits, with Cal Crutchlow shining in eighth place. The plucky Brit had a massive qualifying crash at Le Mans but battled hard into the top ten. Now, Crutchlow’s attentions turn to a physically demanding Mugello circuit, where his best result came in 2013 when he was 3rd – however it was the last time that he managed to finish in the top ten at the track. Teammate Takaaki Nakagami has had one top ten at Mugello and that was in Moto2 in 2016, when he was ninth. Besides Losail, he has scored points in all of the races so far this season and will look to extend that run into Italy, hopefully breaking into the top ten, too.

Who would’ve thought that an Avintia Ducati would have been ahead of a Factory Ducati in 2018? Well, to our amazement, it is happening, with a resurgent Tito Rabat placed 11th in the championship. Rabat suffered his first retirement of the season at Le Mans and, just for good measure, gave himself a battering at the Catalunya test. Rabat hopes to race but his arm injury is bad. Belgian teammate Xavier Simeon has finished every race this season, sadly however, those finishes have been out of the points. Simeon continues his hunt to become the first Belgian in 18 years to score points in the premier class of motorcycle racing.

Franco Morbidelli had a great ride out at Le Mans, running in the top ten for most of the race before being pummelled back towards the end. 13th overall places him 15th in the championship and level with Jorge Lorenzo on points! Mugello was one of six circuits at which Morbidelli didn’t mount the podium at last season and will look to make a return to the top ten at the Italian GP on Sunday. Teammate Tom Luthi is yet to score points in 2018 and was 2nd at Mugello last year in Moto2. Could this be the weekend when he finally cracks the top 15?

Hafizh Syahrin was back in the points for Tech 3 Yamaha at their home event last time out at Le Mans, securing a 12th place finish. The Malaysian continues his development programme in 2018 and goes to Mugello with previous success – a fifth place in 2016 in Moto2. The recently turned 24-year-old is just 16 points off a top ten slot in the championship, an astounding achievement for the late-comer to the grid.

Angel Nieto Racing are enduring a tricky time of things lately, with Alvaro Bautista down in 18th in the championship and just one top ten place secured – an eighth at Jerez. Bautista was a mind-blowing fifth in the race last year, having qualified eighth. Can he do something similar and salvage what has been an awful opening sequence of events for the team? Teammate Karel Abraham has been even worse off than Alvaro, having failed to score points since Losail at the start of the year.