Opinion: Have Red Bull shot themselves in the foot?

Red Bull took the motorsport world by surprise again this morning after announcing that Pierre Gasly would be dropped from the senior team and demoted back down to Toro Rosso. This comes after multiple denials and answers that they ‘would not replace Gasly during the season.’

Even more surprising is that they have chosen Alexander Albon over Daniil Kvyat. The Gasly demotion was always going to come, but to put Albon in a race-winning team in his rookie season is brave and very bold.

Lets look at the decision from Red Bull’s perspective.

Gasly has been awful this season. I don’t think anybody expected him to match/beat Max Verstappen but I don’t think anybody thought he would be getting outqualified by one second and getting lapped by his teammate either.

Instead of contending for podiums and fighting an underwhelming Ferrari every other race, Gasly has essentially been a midfield runner for most of the year, his biggest rivalry coming from Carlos Sainz in the Maclaren. It might sound harsh but it’s the truth.

Red Bull should be second in the constructors’ championship but are not due to Gasly’s performances. Gasly has finished in the top five once in 2019 (Monaco and Silverstone) and only one of those results was on merit.

The Frenchman has made some errors but it is Gasly’s genuine lack of pace which has cost him his seat and the extreme deficit in laptime compared to Verstappen.

You should not be getting lapped by your teammate in any car on any track, if you have not been in an incident, and whilst Gasly’s qualifying pace has improved recently, he has only outqualified Verstappen once (and you probably can’t even count that because it was Canada when Verstappen did not progress to the final part of qualifying).

Unfortunately, Gasly was always going to get demoted and it was just whether it was going to happen during or after the season. Red Bull have been backing him for over half a year, encouraging him and Gasly has been given a chance and simply not taken it.

I have to say that I am surprised to watch him not see out the season at Red Bull, but putting Albon in the car astonishes me.

First of all, what a story this is for Albon. At the start of 2018, he had no sponsorship money in Formula Two and is now joining one of the biggest teams in F1.

He has impressed at times during his junior career. Runner-up to Charles Leclerc in GP3 in 2016 (and had more wins than Leclerc that year), finished third in the championship along with three Feature Race wins in F2 last year to only get beaten by George Russell and Lando Norris in a golden year for F2 and he has carried that form to perform solidly so far in F1.

Don’t forget that Albon was meant to be racing with Nissan in Formula E this year only for Helmut Marko to give him a call to make his F1 debut with Toro Rosso. Albon had never driven an F1 car prior to pre-season testing and was strong immediately, showing very few signs that 2019 was his rookie season.

The Thai driver also had never driven in the wet yet was equally as impressive as Daniil Kvyat and had he been given Kvyat’s strategy, he would have almost certainly been on the podium.

We must not get carried away though. Gasly was an F2 champion and had some extraordinary races with Toro Rosso last year too and look at what has happened to him.

Do I think Albon will be better than Gasly? For once, I am 50/50. Gasly has set the bar pretty low but Albon has so much to learn and he is up against possibly one of the most talented F1 drivers we have seen this century.

There are tracks which Albon will have to learn including the unforgiving Singapore, formidable Suzuka, the technical nature of Circuit of the Americas and Sao Paulo, nevermind trying to do it in a top car against a top driver.

Albon has made very few on-track errors which is a good sign. He’s not shown to be reckless and has shown maturity and wisdom. But, I would not rate him higher than Kvyat this season.

Both Kvyat and Albon have been equal in my opinion and if anything, I rate Kvyat slightly higher. It is underestimated how much there is to learn in F1 and only a few drivers can jump in a car and be mightily quick straight away.

For me, Albon does not strike me as that type of driver. He will not have experienced the pressure of being in one of the biggest teams in motorsport, the extra strain of media commitments and with the current cars being so sensitive, it will inevitably take a few races to get up to speed.

That drive he produced in Hockenheim does give me confidence though in his ability and the way he bounced back from a heavy crash in Shanghai which put him out if qualifying was also impressive. Albon does not need to match Verstappen, he just needs to do a better job than Gasly.

What Gasly did not do was get into a position to disturb Mercedes or Ferrari strategy. Take Budapest last time out for example. Had Gasly been within 20 seconds of the leaders then Verstappen may have won the race because Hamilton would have had to overtake another car and lose time doing so in the prospect.

Red Bull could have had three double podiums from the last four races but Gasly has been nowhere near and instead has been battling the McLaren drivers for 7th-8th place.

As long as Albon doesn’t do that and can consistently be at least 5th or 6th then he should be fine. One or two podiums would be justification that Red Bull have done the right thing. But, Kvyat would be able to do the job as well in my opinion.

Kvyat brings more a lot more experience and would give time for Red Bull to allow Albon to see out a season under a less-pressured environment at Toro Rosso.

Lets say Albon performs just as bad as Gasly. What do Red Bull do for 2020 in this possible scenario? They will have killed two young F1 careers within months if this happens. That is what I fear for Albon. He could so easily end up like Gasly, too much too soon.

By promoting Albon now does not bide Red Bull time. Of course, they want results quickly but they also need to think long-term. If they lose Verstappen for 2021, what are they going to do. Should Albon underperform he would be out of the equation, Gasly looks like he has had his chance, Kvyat has had his chance too and is on a similar level to Albon, they have nobody.

Looking at their junior team and who could get into F1 in the next 2-3 years, you have Patricio O’Ward and Juri Vips. Vips is doing a good job in F3 at the moment but would need at least one season in F2 and another at Toro Rosso before thinking about a Red Bull seat and O’Ward is overrated by many (in my opinion) and will do very well just to get into F1.

Albon NEEDS to do well or else Red Bull are in a very awkward position and would have to go outside of their programme to get good enough drivers for the team and for Toro Rosso. And how have they ended up in this situation? They can thank Daniel Ricciardo leaving them and joining Renault.

Personally, I would have put Kvyat back at Red Bull to see if he really has matured and improved as a driver with Gasly and Albon at Toro Rosso. Should Albon prove to be better than Gasly, then promote him for 2020.

But by not doing that, Red Bull are going into the unknown and it could so easily end up an a precarious situation (nightmare if Verstappen was to leave).

At the moment, Red Bull have nothing to lose by promoting Albon in terms of beating Ferrari this season and helping Verstappen get a few more wins if the second driver can play a part. But what if that does not happen, the long-term future looks dark and they might find themselves scoring an own goal by not getting the timing right.

It is brilliant to see Albon in a Red Bull and he does deserve a chance. Unlike so many who have come and gone from the Red Bull programme in the last 10 years, he needs to take it and perform. As long as he is better than Gasly, he should be okay.

If not, Red Bull might well have ruined at least two F1 careers and put themselves in a position to look outside of their programme. All hopes ride on Albon and the next few months will be just as pivotal for him as they are for Red Bull.